In the context of the Covid-19 pandemic, we evaluate the effects of vaccines and virus variants on epidemiological and macroeconomic outcomes by means of Monte Carlo simulations of a macroeconomic-epidemiological agent-based model calibrated using data from the Lombardy region of Italy. From simulations we infer that vaccination plays the role of a , reducing the frequency and the amplitude of contagion waves and significantly improving macroeconomic performance with respect to a scenario without vaccination. The emergence of a variant, on the other hand, plays the role of an , leading to a deterioration of both epidemiological and macroeconomic outcomes and partly negating the beneficial impacts of the vaccine. A new and improved vaccine in turn can redress the situation. Vaccinations and variants, therefore, can be conceived of as drivers of an intertwined cycle impacting both epidemiological and macroeconomic developments.
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| http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10233200 | PMC |
| http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00191-023-00818-6 | DOI Listing |
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