In Finland, the first wave of the COVID-19 epidemic caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) took place from March to June 2020, with the majority of COVID-19 cases diagnosed in the Helsinki-Uusimaa region. The magnitude and trend in the incidence of COVID-19 is one way to monitor the course of the epidemic. The diagnosed COVID-19 cases are a subset of the infections and therefore the COVID-19 incidence underestimates the SARS-CoV-2 incidence. The likelihood that an individual with SARS-CoV-2 infection is diagnosed with COVID-19 depends on the clinical manifestation as well as the infection testing policy and capacity. These factors may fluctuate over time and the underreporting of infections changes accordingly. Quantifying the extent of underreporting allows the assessment of the true incidence of infection. To obtain information on the incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection in Finland, a series of serological surveys was initiated in April 2020. We develop a Bayesian inference approach and apply it to data from the serological surveys, registered COVID-19 cases, and external data on antibody development, to estimate the time-dependent underreporting of SARS-Cov-2 infections during the first wave of the COVID-19 epidemic in Finland. During the entire first wave, there were 1 to 5 (95% probability) SARS-CoV-2 infections for every COVID-19 case. The underreporting was highest before April when there were 4 to 17 (95% probability) infections for every COVID-19 case. It is likely that between 0.5%-1.0% (50% probability) and no more than 1.5% (95% probability) of the adult population in the Helsinki-Uusimaa region were infected with SARS-CoV-2 by the beginning of July 2020.

Download full-text PDF

Source
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10289354PMC
http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0282094PLOS

Publication Analysis

Top Keywords

sars-cov-2 infections
12
covid-19 epidemic
12
serological surveys
12
covid-19 cases
12
infections covid-19
12
95% probability
12
covid-19
11
underreporting sars-cov-2
8
infections wave
8
series serological
8

Similar Publications

Purpose: Research has shown that prolonged endotracheal intubation can increase risk of aspiration following extubation. This study examined the relationship between swallowing and intubation among patients with COVID-19. We investigated the association between the duration of intubation and time until an oral diet was safely initiated and the correlation between the length of intubation and reduced sensation with aspiration as seen on flexible endoscopic evaluation of swallowing (FEES)/videofluoroscopic swallowing study (VFSS).

View Article and Find Full Text PDF

Evaluating a Public Health Assessment and Response Framework: SARS-CoV-2 Spread Under the Controlled Distancing Model of Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil.

Health Secur

January 2025

Ricardo Rohweder, MSc, is a PhD Student, Programa de Pós-Graduação em Genética e Biologia Molecular; Lavinia Schuler-Faccini, PhD, is a Professor, Department of Genética and Programa de Pós-Graduação em Genética e Biologia Molecular; and Gonçalo Ferraz, PhD, is a Professor, Programa de Pós-Graduação em Ecologia and Programa de Pós-Graduação em Genética e Biologia Molecular; all at the Instituto de Biociências, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul, Porto Alegre, Brazil. Lavinia Schuler-Faccini is also a Professor, Medical Genetics Service of Hospital de Clínicas de Porto Alegre, Porto Alegre, Brazil.

In early 2020, to halt the spread of SARS-CoV-2, the state government of Rio Grande do Sul in Brazil established a public health assessment and response framework known as a "controlled distancing model." Using this framework, the government divided the state into 21 regions and evaluated them against a composite index of disease transmission and health service capacity. Regions were assessed using a color-coded scale of flags that was updated on a weekly basis and used to guide the adoption of nonpharmaceutical interventions.

View Article and Find Full Text PDF

Importance: Blood culture (BC) use benchmarks in US hospitals have not been defined.

Objective: To characterize BC use in adult intensive care units (ICUs) and wards in US hospitals.

Design, Setting, And Participants: A retrospective cross-sectional study of BC use in adult medical ICUs, medical-surgical ICUs, medical wards, and medical-surgical wards from acute care hospitals from the 4 US geographic regions was conducted.

View Article and Find Full Text PDF

Importance: Recent studies have found an association between COVID-19 infection and deeper sedation in mechanically ventilated patients, raising concerns about the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on pain, agitation, and delirium (PAD) management practices overall.

Objectives: This study aimed to assess differences in PAD management in patients without COVID-19 infection in pre- and peri-COVID-19 pandemic timeframes.

Design, Setting, And Participants: This was a single-center, retrospective, pre-/post-cohort analysis of mechanically ventilated adult patients without COVID-19 infection admitted to an ICU in Boston, MA.

View Article and Find Full Text PDF

Maternal smoking increases adverse risks for both the mother's pregnancy and the unborn child and remains disproportionately high among some Indigenous peoples. Decreasing smoking among pregnant Indigenous women has been identified as a health priority in New Zealand because of wide inequities in smoking-related harms. Using pre- and post-intervention questionnaires, this feasibility study assessed the acceptability and potential efficacy of a novel cessation program designed for Indigenous women by Indigenous experts utilizing traditional knowledge and practice.

View Article and Find Full Text PDF

Want AI Summaries of new PubMed Abstracts delivered to your In-box?

Enter search terms and have AI summaries delivered each week - change queries or unsubscribe any time!