Economic and financial risks of commercial tilapia cage culture in a neotropical reservoir.

The aim of this study was to analyze the financial and economic risks of tilapia cage culture across different production water volumes (m³). The production water volumes evaluated were 10 to 50 thousand m³ (Small Volume, SV), 51 to 150 thousand m³ (Medium Volume, MV), 151 to 300 thousand m³ (Large Volume, LV), and >301 thousand m³ (Extra-Large Volume, ELV). Productivity and economic data were obtained from a commercial Nile tilapia cage farm with 232 net cages installed in a neotropical reservoir, in Brazil, from 2017 to 2019. Cost and profitability analyses, economic feasibility, and risk and sensitivity analyses were performed using a Monte Carlo simulation. The implementation of commercial tilapia cage farming relies mainly on feed prices. The initial investment demand is proportional to the size of the farms. On the other hand, MV, LV, and ELV tilapia farms showed the lowest financial risks despite the higher investments. These farms presented a medium-low risk at ≈39% probability, whereas the SV farm presented a medium to medium-high risk at 51.17% probability. Thus, fish farms with a production volume above 51 thousand m³ tend to be more profitable and have a ≈36% probability of low financial and economic risk with a period of fewer than 10 years, mainly due to the lower feed costs per mass of fish produced. This study assists investors in choosing a better path toward a more viable and profitable activity.