Predictors of Future Deep Brain Stimulation Surgery in de novo Parkinson's Disease.

Background: Deep brain stimulation (DBS) surgery is offered to a subset of Parkinson's disease (PD) patients. It is unclear if there are features at diagnosis that predict future DBS surgery.

Objective: To assess predictors of eventual DBS surgery in de novo PD patients.

Methods: Subjects from the Parkinson's Progression Marker Initiative (PPMI) database with newly diagnosed, sporadic PD ( = 416) were identified and stratified by their eventual DBS status (DBS+,  = 43; DBS-,  = 373). A total of 50 baseline clinical, imaging, and biospecimen features were extracted for each subject and cross-validated lasso regression was used for feature reduction. Multivariate logistic regression assessed their relationship with DBS status and a receiver operating characteristic curve evaluated model performance. Linear mixed effect models assessed disease progression over 4 years in DBS+ and DBS- patients.

Results: Age at symptom onset, Hoehn and Yahr (H&Y) stage, tremor score, and ratio of CSF Tau to amyloid-beta 1-42 (Tau: Ab) were identified as important baseline features for predicting DBS surgery. Each independently predicted DBS surgery (area under the curve = 0.83). DBS- patients had faster memory decline ( < 0.05), while DBS+ patients had faster decline in H&Y stage ( < 0.001) and motor scores ( < 0.05) prior to surgery.

Conclusion: The identified features may be used for early identification of patients who may be surgical candidates during the course of their disease. Disease progression in these groups reflects surgical eligibility criteria, with DBS- patients having more rapid decline in memory while DBS+ patients experienced a faster decline in motor scores prior to DBS surgery.