Recurrence rates and risk factors for recurrence after first episode of acute pancreatitis: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

Background: There are a certain number of acute pancreatitis (AP) patients who may suffer from multiple episodes and develop recurrent acute pancreatitis (RAP), but recurrence rates and associated risk factors for RAP vary significantly in the published literature.

Methods: We searched PubMed, Web of Science, Scopus, and Embase databases to identify all publications reporting AP recurrence until October 20th, 2022. Meta-analysis and meta-regression were performed to calculate the pooled estimates using the random-effects model.

Results: A total of 36 studies met the inclusion criteria and all were used in pooled analyses. The overall rate of recurrence after first-time AP was 21% (95% CI, 18%- 24%), and pooled rates in biliary, alcoholic, idiopathic, and hypertriglyceridemia etiology patients were 12%, 30%, 25%, and 30%, respectively. After managing underlying causes post-discharge, the recurrence rate decreased (14% versus 4% for biliary, 30% versus 6% for alcoholic, and 30% versus 22% for hypertriglyceridemia AP). An increased risk of recurrence was reported in patients with a smoking history (odds ratio [OR] = 1.99), alcoholic etiology (OR = 1.72), male sex (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.63), and local complications (HR = 3.40), while biliary etiology was associated with lower recurrence rates (OR = 0.38).

Conclusion: More than one-fifth of AP patients experienced recurrence after discharge, with the highest recurrence rate in alcoholic and hypertriglyceridemia etiologies, and managing underlying causes post-discharge was related to decreased incidence. In addition, smoking history, alcoholic etiology, male gender, and presence of local complications were independent risks for the recurrence.