Exploratory analysis of 5 supervised machine learning models for predicting the efficacy of the endogenous pain inhibitory pathway in patients with musculoskeletal pain.

Objectives: The identification of factors that influence the efficacy of endogenous pain inhibitory pathways remains challenging due to different protocols and populations. We explored five machine learning (ML) models to estimate the Conditioned Pain Modulation (CPM) efficacy.

Design: Exploratory, cross-sectional design.

Setting And Participants: This study was conducted in an outpatient setting and included 311 patients with musculoskeletal pain.

Methods: Data collection included sociodemographic, lifestyle, and clinical characteristics. CPM efficacy was calculated by comparing the pressure pain thresholds before and after patients submerged their non-dominant hand in a bucket of cold water (cold-pressure test) (1-4 °C). We developed five ML models: decision tree, random forest, gradient-boosted trees, logistic regression, and support vector machine.

Main Outcome Measures: Model performance were assessed using receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, precision, recall, F1-score, and the Matthews Correlation Coefficient (MCC). To interpret and explain the predictions, we used SHapley Additive explanation values and Local Interpretable Model-Agnostic Explanations.

Results: The XGBoost model presented the highest performance with an accuracy of 0.81 (95% CI = 0.73 to 0.89), F1 score of 0.80 (95% CI = 0.74 to 0.87), AUC of 0.81 (95% CI: 0.74 to 0.88), MCC of 0.61, and Kappa of 0.61. The model was influenced by duration of pain, fatigue, physical activity, and the number of painful areas.

Conclusions: XGBoost showed potential in predicting the CPM efficacy in patients with musculoskeletal pain on our dataset. Further research is needed to ensure the external validity and clinical utility of this model.