Joint tenderness at 3 months follow-up better predicts long-term pain than baseline characteristics in early rheumatoid arthritis patients.

Objective: To investigate pain course over time and to identify baseline and 3-month predictors of unacceptable pain with or without low inflammation in early RA.

Methods: A cohort of 275 patients with early RA, recruited in 2012-2016, was investigated and followed for 2 years. Pain was assessed using a visual analogue scale (VAS; 0-100 mm). Unacceptable pain was defined as VAS pain >40, and low inflammation as CRP <10 mg/l. Baseline and 3-month predictors of unacceptable pain were evaluated using logistic regression analysis.

Results: After 2 years, 32% of patients reported unacceptable pain. Among those, 81% had low inflammation. Unacceptable pain, and unacceptable pain with low inflammation, at 1 and 2 years was significantly associated with several factors at 3 months, but not at baseline. Three-month predictors of these pain states at 1 and 2 years were higher scores for pain, patient global assessment, and the health assessment questionnaire, and more extensive joint tenderness compared with the number of swollen joints. No significant associations were found for objective inflammatory measures.

Conclusion: A substantial proportion of patients had unacceptable pain with low inflammation after 2 years. Three months after diagnosis seems to be a good time-point for assessing the risk of long-term pain. The associations between patient reported outcomes and pain, and the lack of association with objective inflammatory measures, supports the uncoupling between pain and inflammation in RA. Having many tender joints, but more limited synovitis, may be predictive of long-term pain despite low inflammation in early RA.