Liver fibrosis markers and all cause mortality in people with type 2 diabetes: A population based study (The Ayrshire Diabetes Outcomes Cohort (ADOC) Study).

Aims: To describe the distribution of the biomarker scores Fibrosis-4 (FIB4), nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) fibrosis score (NFS), and aspartate aminotransferase to platelet ratio index (APRI), and the associations between risk categories and all-cause mortality.

Materials And Methods: This was a retrospective cohort study of 12 589 patients, with follow-up from January 2012 until November 2021. The cut-off points used to identify low risk were: FIB4 <1.3 if aged <65 years or <2.0 if aged ≥65 years; NFS < -1.455 if aged <65 years or <0.12 if aged ≥ 65 years; APRI <1 (independent of age). High-risk cut-off points were FIB4 >2.67, NFS >0.676 and APRI ≥1 (all independent of age). Multivariable Cox regression analysis was performed to assess the association between liver fibrosis scores and all-cause mortality.

Results: The mean ± standard deviation age was 65.2 ± 12.1 years, 54.5% were men and the median (interquartile range) diabetes duration was 5.8 (2.8-9.3) years. The prevalence of high-risk categories was 6.1% for FIB4, 23.5% for NFS and 1.6% for APRI. During a median follow-up of 9.8 years, 3925 patients (31.1%) died, resulting in a crude mortality rate of 40.4 per 1000 person-years. The overall adjusted all-cause mortality hazard ratios (95% confidence intervals [CIs]) in the high- compared with low-fibrosis-risk groups were 3.69 (1.95-2.75) for FIB4, 2.32 (2.88-4.70) for NFS, and 3.92 (2.88-5.34) for APRI. Stratified adjusted all-cause mortality hazard ratios for individuals under 65 years and people over 65 years of age at cohort entry were 3.89 (95% CI 2.99-5.05) and 1.44 (95% CI 1.28-1.61) for FIB4, 2.50 (95% CI 1.89-3.18) and 1.35 (95% CI 1.24-1.48) for NFS and 3.74 (95% CI 2.73-5.14) and 1.64 (95% CI 1.24-2.17) for APRI.

Conclusions: All three fibrosis risk scores were positively associated with all-cause mortality in people with type 2 diabetes, with higher relative risks in younger than older people. Effective interventions are required to minimize excess mortality in people at high risk of liver fibrosis.