[Preliminary exploration of clinical prediction model of severe swallowing disorder after acute ischemic stroke based on nomogram model].

Objective: To establish a predictive model for severe swallowing disorder after acute ischemic stroke based on nomogram model, and evaluate its effectiveness.

Methods: A prospective study was conducted. The patients with acute ischemic stroke admitted to Mianyang Central Hospital from October 2018 to October 2021 were enrolled. Patients were divided into severe swallowing disorder group and non-severe swallowing disorder group according to whether severe swallowing disorder occurred within 72 hours after admission. The differences in general information, personal history, past medical history, and clinical characteristics of patients between the two groups were compared. The risk factors of severe swallowing disorder were analyzed by multivariate Logistic regression analysis, and the relevant nomogram model was established. The bootstrap method was used to perform self-sampling internal validation on the model, and consistency index, calibration curve, receiver operator characteristic curve (ROC curve), and decision curve were used to evaluate the predictive performance of the model.

Results: A total of 264 patients with acute ischemic stroke were enrolled, and the incidence of severe swallowing disorder within 72 hours after admission was 19.3% (51/264). Compared with the non-severe swallowing disorder group, the severe swallowing disorder group had a higher proportion of patients aged of ≥ 60 years old, with severe neurological deficits [National Institutes of Health stroke scale (NIHSS) score ≥ 7], severe functional impairments [Barthel index, an activity of daily living functional status assessment index, < 40], brainstem infarction and lesions ≥ 40 mm (78.43% vs. 56.81%, 52.94% vs. 28.64%, 39.22% vs. 12.21%, 31.37% vs. 13.62%, 54.90% vs. 24.41%), and the differences were statistically significant (all P < 0.01). Multivariate Logistic regression analysis showed that age ≥ 60 years old [odds ratio (OR) = 3.542, 95% confidence interval (95%CI) was 1.527-8.215], NIHSS score ≥ 7 (OR = 2.741, 95%CI was 1.337-5.619), Barthel index < 40 (OR = 4.517, 95%CI was 2.013-10.136), brain stem infarction (OR = 2.498, 95%CI was 1.078-5.790) and lesion ≥ 40 mm (OR = 2.283, 95%CI was 1.485-3.508) were independent risk factors for severe swallowing disorder after acute ischemic stroke (all P < 0.05). The results of model validation showed that the consistency index was 0.805, and the trend of the calibration curve was basically consistent with the ideal curve, indicating that the model had good prediction accuracy. ROC curve analysis showed that the area under the ROC curve (AUC) predicted by nomogram model for severe swallowing disorder after acute ischemic stroke was 0.817 (95%CI was 0.788-0.852), indicating that the model had good discrimination. The decision curve showed that within the range of 5% to 90%, the nomogram model had a higher net benefit value for predicting the risk of severe swallowing disorder after acute ischemic stroke, indicating that the model had good clinical predictive performance.

Conclusions: The independent risk factors of severe swallowing disorder after acute ischemic stroke include age ≥ 60 years old, NIHSS score ≥ 7, Barthel index < 40, brainstem infarction and lesion size ≥ 40 mm. The nomogram model established based on these factors can effectively predict the occurrence of severe swallowing disorder after acute ischemic stroke.