The Clinical Impact and Cost-Effectiveness of Surveillance of Incidentally Detected Gastric Intestinal Metaplasia: A Microsimulation Analysis.

Background & Aims: Gastric intestinal metaplasia (GIM) is associated with a higher risk of noncardia intestinal gastric adenocarcinoma (GA). The aim of this study was to estimate lifetime benefits, complications, and cost-effectiveness of GIM surveillance using esophagogastroduodenoscopy (EGD).

Methods: We developed a semi-Markov microsimulation model of patients with incidentally detected GIM, to compare the effectiveness of EGD surveillance with no surveillance at 10-year, 5-year, 3-year, 2-year, and 1-year intervals. We modeled a simulated cohort of 1,000,000 US individuals aged 50 with incidental GIM. Outcome measures were lifetime GA incidence, mortality, number of EGDs, complications, undiscounted life-years gained, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratio with a willingness-to-pay threshold of $100,000/quality-adjusted life-year (QALY).

Results: In the absence of surveillance, the model simulated 32.0 lifetime GA cases and 23.0 lifetime GA deaths per 1000 individuals with GIM, respectively. Among surveilled individuals, simulated lifetime GA incidence (per 1000) decreased with shorter surveillance intervals (10-year to 1-year, 11.2-6.1) as did GA mortality (7.4-3.6). Compared with no surveillance, all modeled surveillance intervals yielded greater life expectancy (87-190 undiscounted life-years gained per 1000); 5-year surveillance provided the greatest number of life-years gained per EGD performed and was the cost-effective strategy ($40,706/QALY). In individuals with risk factors of family history of GA or anatomically extensive, incomplete-type GIM intensified 3-year surveillance was cost-effective (incremental cost-effectiveness ratio $28,156/QALY and $87,020/QALY, respectively).

Conclusions: Using microsimulation modeling, surveillance of incidentally detected GIM every 5 years is associated with reduced GA incidence/mortality and is cost-effective from a health care sector perspective. Real-world studies evaluating the impact of GIM surveillance on GA incidence and mortality in the United States are needed.