Pre-treatment metastatic growth rate is associated with clinical outcome in patients with metastatic renal cell carcinoma treated with nivolumab.

Background: Immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs) have been approved for the treatment of metastatic renal cell carcinoma (mRCC). However, the response rate is still limited, and it is urgent to pursue novel and concise markers of responses to ICIs that allow the determination of clinical benefits. Recently, it was reported that the metastatic growth rate (MGR) is an independent factor associated with clinical outcome for anticancer therapy in some types of cancer.

Methods: We investigated pre-treatment MGR before starting nivolumab for mRCC patients between September 2016 to October 2019. In addition, we examined clinicopathological factors including MGR and analyzed the correlation between pre-treatment MGR and clinical efficacy of nivolumab.

Results: Of all patients, the median age was 63 years (range, 42-81), and the median observation period was 13.6 months (range, 1.7-40.3). Twenty-three patients and sixteen patients were classified as the low and the high MGR group, respectively, with the cutoff value of 2.2 mm/month. Progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) were significantly better in patients in the low MGR group (p = 0.005 and p = 0.01). Importantly, in multivariate analysis, only the high MGR was significantly associated with a decrease of PFS (Hazard ratio (HR): 2.69, p = 0.03) and OS (HR: 5.27, p = 0.02).

Conclusions: Pre-treatment MGR may serve as the simple and valid indicator obtained from imaging studies, and the prominent surrogate marker associated with OS and PFS in mRCC patients treated with nivolumab.