Change in stage after neoadjuvant chemoradiation is associated with survival in patients with esophageal cancer.

Background: The aim of this study was to determine if change in stage after neoadjuvant chemoradiation (CRT) was associated with improved survival in esophageal cancer using a national database.

Methods: Using the National Cancer Database, patients with non-metastatic, resectable esophageal cancer who received neoadjuvant CRT and surgery were identified. Comparing clinical to the pathologic stage, change in stage was classified as pathologic complete response (pCR), downstaged, same-staged, or upstaged. Univariable and multivariable Cox regression models were used to identify factors associated with survival.

Results: A total of 7745 patients were identified. The median overall survival (OS) was 34.9 months. Median OS was 60.3 months if pCR, 39.1 months if downstaged, 28.3 months if same-staged, and 23.4 months if upstaged (p < 0.0001). On multivariable analysis, pCR was associated with improved OS compared to the other groups (downstaged: hazard ratio [HR]: 1.32 [95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.18-1.46]; same-staged: HR: 1.89 [95% CI: 1.68-2.13]; upstaged: HR: 2.54 [95% CI: 2.25-2.86]; all p < 0.0001).

Conclusions: In this large database study, change in stage after neoadjuvant CRT was strongly associated with survival for patients with non-metastatic, resectable esophageal cancer. There was a significant stepwise decline in survival, in descending order of pCR, downstaged tumor, same-staged tumor, and upstaged tumor.