When does a Lotka-Volterra model represent microbial interactions? Insights from nasal bacterial communities.

To alter microbial community composition for therapeutic purposes, an accurate and reliable modeling framework capable of predicting microbial community outcomes is required. Lotka-Volterra (LV) equations have been utilized to describe a breadth of microbial communities, yet, the conditions in which this modeling framework is successful remain unclear. Here, we propose that a set of simple experiments-growing each member in cell-free spent medium obtained from other members-can be used as a test to decide whether an LV model is appropriate for describing microbial interactions of interest. We show that for LV to be a good candidate, the ratio of growth rate to carrying capacity of each isolate when grown in the cell-free spent media of other isolates should remain constant. Using an community of human nasal bacteria as a tractable system, we find that LV can be a good approximation when the environment is low-nutrient (i.e., when growth is limited by the availability of nutrients) and complex (i.e., when multiple resources, rather than a few, determine growth). These findings can help clarify the range of applicability of LV models and reveal when a more complex model may be necessary for predictive modeling of microbial communities. IMPORTANCE Although mathematical modeling can be a powerful tool to draw useful insights in microbial ecology, it is crucial to know when a simplified model adequately represents the interactions of interest. Here, we take advantage of bacterial isolates from the human nasal passages as a tractable model system and conclude that the commonly used Lotka-Volterra model can represent interactions among microbes well when the environment is complex (with many interaction mediators) and low-nutrient. Our work highlights the importance of considering both realism and simplicity when choosing a model to represent microbial interactions.