Medium and long-term prognosis in hospitalised older adults with multimorbidity. A prospective cohort study.

Background: Data about long-term prognosis after hospitalisation of elderly multimorbid patients remains scarce.

Objectives: Evaluate medium and long-term prognosis in hospitalised patients older than 75 years of age with multimorbidity. Explore the impact of gender, age, frailty, physical dependence, and chronic diseases on mortality over a seven-year period.

Methods: We included prospectively all patients hospitalised for medical reasons over 75 years of age with two or more chronic illnesses in a specialised ward. Data on chronic diseases were collected using the Charlson comorbidity index and a questionnaire for disorders not included in this index. Demographic characteristics, Clinical Frailty Scale, Barthel index, and complications during hospitalisation were collected.

Results: 514 patients (46% males) with a mean age of 85 (± 5) years were included. The median follow-up was 755 days (interquartile range 25-75%: 76-1,342). Mortality ranged from 44% to 68%, 82% and 91% at one, three, five, and seven years. At inclusion, men were slightly younger and with lower levels of physical impairment. Nevertheless, in the multivariate analysis, men had higher mortality (p<0.001; H.R.:1.43; 95% C.I.95%:1.16-1.75). Age, Clinical Frailty Scale, Barthel, and Charlson indexes were significant predictors in the univariate and multivariate analysis (all p<0.001). Dementia and neoplastic diseases were statistically significant in the unadjusted but not the adjusted model. In a cluster analysis, three patterns of patients were identified, with increasing significant mortality differences between them (p<0.001; H.R.:1.67; 95% CI: 1.49-1.88).

Conclusions: In our cohort, individual diseases had a limited predictive prognostic capacity, while the combination of chronic illness, frailty, and physical dependence were independent predictors of survival.