Predictors of individual mental health and psychological resilience after Australia's 2019-2020 bushfires.

Aims: We assessed the mental health effects of Australia's 2019-2020 bushfires 12-18 months later, predicting psychological distress and positive psychological outcomes from bushfire exposure and a range of demographic variables, and seeking insights to enhance disaster preparedness and resilience planning for different profiles of people.

Methods: We surveyed 3083 bushfire-affected and non-affected Australian residents about their experiences of bushfire, COVID-19, psychological distress (depression, anxiety, stress, post-traumatic stress disorder) and positive psychological outcomes (resilient coping, wellbeing).

Results: We found high rates of distress across all participants, exacerbated by severity of bushfire exposure. For people who were bushfire-affected, being older, having less financial stress, and having no or fewer pre-existing mental disorders predicted both lower distress and higher positive outcomes. Being male or having less income loss also predicted positive outcomes. Severity of exposure, higher education and higher COVID-19-related stressors predicted both higher distress and higher positive outcomes. Pre-existing physical health diagnosis and previous bushfire experience did not significantly predict distress or positive outcomes.

Recommendations: To promote disaster resilience, we recommend investment in mental health, particularly for younger adults and for those in rural and remote areas. We also recommend investment in mechanisms to protect against financial distress and the development of a broader definition of bushfire-related impacts than is currently used to capture brushfires' far-reaching effects.