Evaluating the effects of minimum unit pricing in Scotland on the prevalence of harmful drinking: a controlled interrupted time series analysis.

Objectives: In May 2018, the Scottish Government introduced a minimum unit price (MUP) for alcohol of £0.50 (1 UK unit = 8 g ethanol) to reduce alcohol consumption, particularly among people drinking at harmful levels. This study aimed to evaluate MUP's impact on the prevalence of harmful drinking among adults in Scotland.

Study Design: This was a controlled interrupted monthly time series analysis of repeat cross-sectional data collected via 1-week drinking diaries from adult drinkers in Scotland (N = 38,674) and Northern England (N = 71,687) between January 2009 and February 2020.

Methods: The primary outcome was the proportion of drinkers consuming at harmful levels (>50 [men] or >35 [women] units in diary week). The secondary outcomes included the proportion of drinkers consuming at hazardous (≥14-50 [men] or ≥14-35 [women] units) and moderate (<14 units) levels and measures of beverage preferences and drinking patterns. Analyses also examined the prevalence of harmful drinking in key subgroups.

Results: There was no significant change in the proportion of drinkers consuming at harmful levels (β = +0.6 percentage points; 95% confidence interval [CI] = -1.1, +2.3) or moderate levels (β = +1.4 percentage points; 95% confidence interval = -1.1, +3.8) after the introduction of MUP. The proportion consuming at hazardous levels fell significantly by 3.5 percentage points (95% CI = -5.4, -1.7). There were no significant changes in other secondary outcomes or in the subgroup analyses after correction for multiple testing.

Conclusions: Introducing MUP in Scotland was not associated with reductions in the proportion of drinkers consuming at harmful levels but did reduce the prevalence of hazardous drinking. This adds to previous evidence that MUP reduced overall alcohol consumption in Scotland and consumption among those drinking above moderate levels.