Increased risk for microvascular outcomes in NAFLD-A nationwide, population-based cohort study.

Introduction: Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is considered a multisystem disease, as it is bidirectionally linked to other cardiometabolic disorders, such as type 2 diabetes (T2D). However, the long-term risk for microvascular outcomes in NAFLD is unclear.

Methods: Using the outpatient part of the nationwide Swedish Patient Register in the time period between 01/01/2002 and 12/31/2019, we identified all individuals with a first NAFLD diagnosis (N = 6785) and matched these (age, sex, and municipality) with up to 10 reference individuals from the general population (N = 61,136). Using population-based registers, we ascertained the development of microvascular diseases. The primary outcome was defined as a composite outcome of any diagnosis representative of microvascular disease (chronic kidney disease, retinopathy, or neuropathy). As secondary outcomes, we separately examined the risk of each specific microvascular outcome. Hazard ratios (aHR, adjusted for cirrhosis and time-varying T2D, hypertension, and hyperlipidemia) for the outcomes were calculated by Cox proportional-hazards models.

Results: Median follow-up was 5.7 years. The incidence rate of microvascular diseases was >twofold higher in patients with NAFLD (10.8 per 1000 person-years [95% confidence interval (CI) = 9.9-11.8]) versus reference individuals (4.7 per 1000 person-years [95%CI = 4.5-4.9]). NAFLD was independently and positively associated with the development of microvascular diseases compared to non-NAFLD subjects (aHR = 1.45 [95%CI = 1.28-1.63]). When stratifying the analysis by follow-up time, sex, or age categories, results remain virtually unchanged.

Conclusions: NAFLD is positively and independently associated with the development of microvascular diseases. The risk for development of microvascular diseases should be taken into account in the personalized risk assessment of individuals with NAFLD.