Short-term effects of fine particulate matter constituents on mortality considering the mortality displacement in Zhejiang province, China.

Background: Evidence linking mortality and short-term exposure to particulate matter (PM) constituents was sparse. The mortality displacement was often unconsidered and may induce incorrect risk estimation.

Objectives: To assess the short-term effects of PM constituents on all-cause mortality considering the mortality displacement.

Methods: Daily data on all-cause mortality and PM constituents, including sulfate (SO), nitrate (NO), ammonium (NH), organic matters (OM), and black carbon (BC), were collected from 2009 to 2020. The mortality effect of PM and its constituents was estimated using a distributed lag non-linear model. Stratified analyses were performed by age, sex, and season.

Results: Per interquartile range increases in SO, NO, NH, OM, and BC were associated with the 1.42% (95%CI: 0.98, 1.87), 3.76% (3.34, 4.16), 2.26% (1.70, 2.83), 2.36% (2.02, 2.70), and 1.26% (0.91, 1.61) increases in all-cause mortality, respectively. Mortality displacements were observed for PM, SO, NH, OM, and BC, with their overall effects lasting for 7-15 days. Stratified analyses revealed a higher risk for old adults (>65 years) and females, with stronger effects in the cold season.

Conclusions: Short-term exposures to PM constituents were positively associated with increased risks of mortality. The mortality displacement should be considered in future epidemiological studies on PM constituents.

Data Availability: Data will be made available on request.