Predicting post-discharge venous thromboembolism and bleeding among medical patients: External validation of a novel risk score utilizing ubiquitous biomarkers.

Background: Post-hospitalization thromboprophylaxis can reduce venous thromboembolism (VTE) risk for non-surgical patients but may carry bleeding risks. We aimed to externally validate the Intermountain Risk Scores for hospital-associated venous thromboembolism (HA-VTE IMRS) and major bleeding (HA-MB IMRS) for VTE and bleeding outcomes.

Methods: Retrospective cohort study of adult patients discharged alive from medical services between 2015 and 2019. HA-VTE IMRS and HA-MB IMRS were calculated at the time of hospital discharge and dichotomized as high- or low-risk as described in the derivation manuscript. 90-day post-discharge VTE outcomes were assessed from diagnostic radiology reports, and bleeding outcomes were assessed using ICD-10 codes and blood bank transfusion records.

Results: Among 113,578 patients in the study, 66,340 patients (58.4 %) had a low-risk HA-VTE IMRS <7, versus 47,238 (41.6 %) high-risk ≥7. For bleed prediction, 71,576 patients (63 %) had a low-risk HA-MB IMRS <8, versus 42,002 (37 %) high-risk ≥8. VTE incidence was 1.1 % and 0.6 % while major bleeding incidence was 1.3 % and 0.1 % in high-risk versus low-risk cohorts, respectively. AUCs for VTE and bleed outcome discrimination were 0.59 and 0.78, respectively. Patients with a combined high-risk VTE score and low-risk bleeding score comprised 14.5 % of the population.

Conclusion: In this external validation study, the HA-VTE IMRS had poor discrimination for VTE but the HA-MB IMRS had good discriminatory ability for major bleeding events. A sizable minority of patients were categorized as high VTE risk with low bleed risk, a population which may have an optimal risk-benefit profile for post-hospital thromboprophylaxis.