Dental caries prediction and the indication of pit and fissure sealant in children first permanent molars: A prospective study.

Objectives: To evaluate predictors for caries incidence on first permanent molars and to assess the accuracy and efficiency of these predictors for the indication of pit and fissure sealants.

Methods: This 7-y cohort study started in 2010 with a sample of 639 children (1-5 years) from Southern Brazil. Dental caries was assessed using the ICDAS. Maternal education, family income, parental perception on child oral health and severe dental caries experience were collected at baseline and used to test the prediction of dental caries. Predictive values, accuracy and efficiency were estimated for each possible predictor.

Results: 449 children were re-assessed at follow-up (70.3% retention rate). The baseline characteristics showed similar risks for dental caries incidence in first permanent molars. Low family income and poor parental perception of child oral health were moderately accurate in correctly identifying sound children who would not need to receive pit and fissure sealant. However, all the adopted criteria have lower accuracy incorrectly identifying children who later developed dental caries in first permanent molars.

Conclusions: Distal and intermediate factors were relatively accurate in determining caries risk incidence on children's first permanent molars. The criteria adopted were more accurate in identifying sound children than those who need to receive pit and fissure sealant.

Clinical Relevance: Our findings reinforce the idea that investing in strategies that take into account common risk factors still represents the best option for dental caries prevention. However, adopting only these parameters is not enough to indicate pit and fissure sealants.