Defining a Nomogram for Predicting Early Recurrence in Gastric Cancer Patients After Neoadjuvant Chemotherapy and Radical Gastrectomy.

Purpose: To define and predict early recurrence (ER) in patients with gastric cancer (GC) who underwent radical gastrectomy after neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NAC).

Methods: The present study included 573 patients who underwent NAC followed by curative resection for GC between January 2014 and December 2019. The patients were randomly divided into the training (n = 382) and validation (n = 191) cohorts in a 2:1 ratio. The optimal cut-off value of recurrence-free survival for defining ER was determined based on post-recurrence survival (PRS). Risk factors for ER were identified by logistic regression. A nomogram was further constructed and evaluated.

Results: The optimal cut-off value for defining ER was 12 months. Overall, 136 patients (23.7%) experienced ER and had significantly shorter median PRS (4 vs. 13 months, P < 0.001). In the training cohort, factors independently associated with ER included age (P = 0.026), Lauren classification (P < 0.001), preoperative carcinoembryonic antigen (P = 0.029), ypN staging (P < 0.001), major pathological regression (P = 0.004), and postoperative complications (P < 0.001). A nomogram integrating these factors exhibited higher predictive accuracy than the ypTNM stage alone in both the training and validation cohorts. Moreover, the nomogram enabled significant risk stratification in both cohorts; only the high-risk patients could benefit from adjuvant chemotherapy (ER rate: 53.9% vs. 85.7%, P = 0.007).

Conclusion: A nomogram involving preoperative factors can accurately predict the risk of ER and guide individualized treatment strategies for GC patients following NAC, which may assist in clinical decision-making.