Stability and Relevance of Marriage Desires: Importance of Age Norms and Partnering Opportunities.

Objective: This study investigates shifts in marriage desires during singlehood and the potential consequences associated with these shifts in Japan, a country epitomizing later and less marriage without substantial increases in nonmarital childbearing.

Background: Despite researchers' long-standing interest in values potentially motivating demographic changes, few have systematically examined marriage desires among unmarried adults. Even fewer have considered how marriage desires may change during adulthood and how relevant such changes are to marriage and family behavior.

Method: The analysis uses 11 waves of the Japan Life Course Panel Survey, which tracks singles' marriage desires yearly. Fixed effects models are estimated to demonstrate factors associated with within-person changes and account for unobserved heterogeneity.

Results: Japanese singles' marriage desires decline with age but are stronger when they perceive greater opportunities to form romantic relationships or marriage. Singles experiencing an increase in the desire to marry are more likely to take actions to seek partners and to enter a romantic relationship or marriage subsequently. The associations between marriage desires and the various behavioral changes strengthen with age and feasibility of marriage. Increases in marriage desires also correspond to increases in single men's parenthood desires and ideal numbers of children, and the link between marriage desires and fertility preferences is stronger as they age.

Conclusion: Marriage desires are not always stable or equally relevant throughout singlehood. Our study suggests that age norms and partnering opportunities both contribute to the fluctuation of marriage desires and affect when such desires would have behavioral implications.