Seasonality of sporotrichosis in Brazil: A modelled analysis of the epidemic in São Paulo, 2011-2020.

Background: Sporotrichosis is an endemic subcutaneous mycosis classically caused by the Sporothrix schenckii species complex. Recently, sporotrichosis has emerged in Brazil as a cat-transmitted epidemic caused by a new species, Sporothrix brasiliensis.

Objectives: To survey the clinical-epidemiological profile of all sporotrichosis cases diagnosed between 2011 and 2020 at a reference hospital in São Paulo metropolitan area and evaluate the annual distribution of cases in relation to seasonality.

Methods: Patients' demographic and clinical-epidemiological data were surveyed. A generalized linear model was fitted to relate the quarterly number of sporotrichosis cases detected between 2015 and 2019 with precipitation and temperature series. Prediction of the number of cases from 2011 to 2014 was attempted based on the fitted model without the trend component that appears from 2015.

Results: Among 271 suspected cases admitted during 2011-2020, 254 were confirmed by fungal isolation and/or clinical-epidemiological criteria. We observed that 2015 onwards the number of cases regularly increased during Autumn and Winter, the driest and coldest stations of the year. We verified that temperature series affected the number of cases (p = .005) because an increase of 1°C in the temperature series was associated with a 14.24% decrease in the average cases number, with the average number of cases increasing by 10.96% (p < .0001) every quarter, corresponding to an annual increase of 52%. Between 2011 and 2014, the predicted number of sporotrichosis cases averaged 10-12 per year, with 33%-38% occurring in the winter.

Conclusion: We hypothesize that sporotrichosis seasonality is associated with the felines' oestrus cycle, which may provide alternative, cat-directed approaches to the sporotrichosis epidemic control.