PANCREATIC CANCER MORTALITY TRENDS AND CORRELATION WITH HUMAN DEVELOPMENT INDEX (HDI) IN BRAZIL OVER 40 YEARS.

Background: Pancreatic cancer mortality is greater in countries with a high Human Development Index (HDI). This study analyzed pancreatic cancer mortality rates trends, and their correlation with HDI in Brazil over 40 years.

Methods: Data on pancreatic cancer mortality in Brazil between 1979 and 2019 were obtained from the Mortality Information System (SIM). Age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR) and Annual Average Percent Change (AAPC) were calculated. Pearson's correlation test was applied to compare mortality rates and HDI for three periods: 1986-1995 was correlated with HDI of 1991, 1996-2005 with HDI of 2000, and 2006-2015 with HDI of 2010; and to the correlation of AAPC versus the percentage change in HDI from 1991 to 2010.

Results: A total of 209,425 deaths from pancreatic cancer were reported in Brazil, with an annual increase of 1.5% in men and 1.9% in women. There was an upward trend for mortality in most Brazilian states, with the highest trends observed in the North and Northeast states. A positive correlation between pancreatic mortality and HDI was observed over the three decades (r>0.80, P<0.05) and also between AAPC and HDI improvement by sex (r=0.75 for men and r=0.78 for women, P<0.05).

Conclusion: There was an upward trend in pancreatic cancer mortality in Brazil for both sexes, but rates among women were higher. Mortality trends were higher in states with a higher percentage improvement in HDI, such as the North and Northeast states.