Climate change and human activities can have an impact on the supply and demand of water-related ecosystem services (WRESs) in the Asian water tower (AWT) and its downstream area, which is closely related to the production and livelihoods of billions of people. However, few studies have taken the AWT and its downstream area as a whole to assess the supply-demand relationship of WRESs. This study aims to assess the future trends of the supply-demand relationship of WRESs in the AWT and its downstream area. Here, the supply-demand relationship of WRESs in 2019 was assessed using the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) model and socio-economic data. Then, future scenarios were selected under the framework of the Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP). Finally, trends in the supply-demand of WRESs were analysed at multiple scales from 2020 to 2050. The study found that the supply-demand imbalance of WRESs in the AWT and its downstream area will continue to intensify. The area with imbalance intensification was 2.38 × 10 km (61.7 %). The supply-demand ratio of WRESs will decline significantly under different scenarios (p < 0.05). The main reason for the imbalance intensification in WRESs is the constant growth of human activities, with a relative contribution of 62.8 %. Our findings suggest that in addition to the pursuit of climate mitigation and adaptation, attention should also be paid to the impact of rapid human activity growth on the supply-demand imbalance of WRESs.
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| http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.164205 | DOI Listing |
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