The lifetime revision risk of primary anatomic and reverse total shoulder arthroplasty.

Background: Implant survival in total shoulder arthroplasty (TSA) is currently defined with reference to a set time period (eg, 5-year implant survival). This is a difficult concept for patients to understand, especially for younger patients who have more years of life remaining. Our study aims to calculate a patient's lifetime revision risk after primary anatomic (aTSA) and reverse (rTSA) total shoulder arthroplasty-a more meaningful projection of revision risk over a patient's remaining lifetime.

Methods: The New Zealand Joint Registry (NZJR) and national death data was used to calculate the incidence of revision and mortality in all patients who underwent primary aTSA and rTSA in New Zealand between 1999 and 2021. Lifetime revision risk was calculated using previously described methods, and this risk was stratified by age (46-90 years, 5-year bins), sex, and procedure type (aTSA and rTSA).

Results: In total, there were 4346 patients in the aTSA cohort and 7384 patients in the rTSA cohort. Lifetime revision risk was highest in the youngest age group (46-50 years) at 35.8% (95% CI 34.5%-37.0%) for aTSA and 30.9% (95% CI 29.9%-32.0%) for rTSA, with risk decreasing with increasing age. Across all age groups, the lifetime revision risk was higher for aTSA compared to rTSA. By sex, females reported higher lifetime revision risk for each age group in the aTSA cohort whereas males reported higher lifetime revision risk for each group in the rTSA cohort.

Conclusions: Our study demonstrates that younger patients have higher lifetime revision risk after total shoulder arthroplasty. Our results highlight the long-term revision risks associated with the trend of offering shoulder arthroplasty to younger patients. The data may be used among various health care stakeholders to inform the surgical decision-making process and plan for future health care resource use.