Clinical development of new drugs for adults and children with cancer, 2010-2020.

Background: Many new molecular entities enter clinical development to evaluate potential therapeutic benefits for oncology patients. We characterized adult and pediatric development of the set of new molecular entities that started clinical testing in 2010-2015 worldwide.

Methods: We extracted data from AdisInsight, an extensive database of global pharmaceutical development, and the FDA.gov website. We followed the cohort of new molecular entities initiating first-in-human phase I clinical trials in 2010-2015 to the end of 2020. For each new molecular entity, we determined whether it was granted US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approval, studied in a trial open to pediatric enrollment, or stalled during development. We characterized the cumulative incidence of these endpoints using statistical methods for censored data.

Results: The 572 new molecular entities starting first-in-human studies in 2010-2015 were studied in 6142 trials by the end of 2020. Most new molecular entities were small molecules (n = 316, 55.2%), antibodies (n = 148, 25.9%), or antibody-drug conjugates (n = 44, 7.7%). After a mean follow-up of 8.0 years, 173 new molecular entities did not advance beyond first-in-human trials, and 39 were approved by the FDA. New molecular entities had a 10.4% estimated probability (95% confidence interval = 6.6% to 14.1%) of being approved by the FDA within 10 years of first-in-human trials. After a median of 4.6 years since start of first-in-human trials, 67 (11.7%) new molecular entities were tested in trials open to pediatric patients, and 5 (0.9%) were approved for pediatric indications.

Conclusions: More efficient clinical development strategies are needed to evaluate new cancer therapies, especially for children, and incorporate approaches to ensure knowledge gain from investigational products that stall in development.