Impact of fatty liver on long-term outcomes in chronic hepatitis B: a systematic review and matched analysis of individual patient data meta-analysis.

Background/aims: Chronic hepatitis B (CHB) and fatty liver (FL) often co-exist, but natural history data of this dual condition (CHB-FL) are sparse. Via a systematic review, conventional meta-analysis (MA) and individual patient-level data MA (IPDMA), we compared liver-related outcomes and mortality between CHB-FL and CHB-no FL patients.

Methods: We searched 4 databases from inception to December 2021 and pooled study-level estimates using a random- effects model for conventional MA. For IPDMA, we evaluated outcomes after balancing the two study groups with inverse probability treatment weighting (IPTW) on age, sex, cirrhosis, diabetes, ALT, HBeAg, HBV DNA, and antiviral treatment.

Results: We screened 2,157 articles and included 19 eligible studies (17,955 patients: 11,908 CHB-no FL; 6,047 CHB-FL) in conventional MA, which found severe heterogeneity (I2=88-95%) and no significant differences in HCC, cirrhosis, mortality, or HBsAg seroclearance incidence (P=0.27-0.93). IPDMA included 13,262 patients: 8,625 CHB-no FL and 4,637 CHB-FL patients who differed in several characteristics. The IPTW cohort included 6,955 CHB-no FL and 3,346 CHB-FL well-matched patients. CHB-FL patients (vs. CHB-no FL) had significantly lower HCC, cirrhosis, mortality and higher HBsAg seroclearance incidence (all p≤0.002), with consistent results in subgroups. CHB-FL diagnosed by liver biopsy had a higher 10-year cumulative HCC incidence than CHB-FL diagnosed with non-invasive methods (63.6% vs. 4.3%, p<0.0001).

Conclusion: IPDMA data with well-matched CHB patient groups showed that FL (vs. no FL) was associated with significantly lower HCC, cirrhosis, and mortality risk and higher HBsAg seroclearance probability.