Unruptured untreated intracranial aneurysms: a retrospective analysis of outcomes of 445 aneurysms managed conservatively.

Background: Factors predicting the growth or rupture of unruptured intracranial aneurysms (UIAs) remain under debate. Increased availability of neuro-imaging has led to increasing incidental findings, therefore understanding the natural history is vital to make appropriate management and follow-up decisions. We analysed a large dataset of UIAs to better identify patients at increased risk, therefore requiring enhanced monitoring and/or prophylactic intervention.

Methods: Electronic patient records were reviewed from consecutive patients regarding the following data: baseline demographics; past medical and smoking history; indication for imaging detecting the UIA(s); size, location and morphology of UIA(s), duration of imaging follow-up, detection of growth and rupture. Logistic regression was used to identify risk factors for UIA growth or rupture. Subgroup analysis was performed for 'small' aneurysms (<7mm).

Results: 445 UIAs in 274 patients were analysed. Total imaging follow-up was 2268 aneurysm-years (median 3.8 years/UIA). 27 UIAs grew (1.2% annually), and 15 ruptured (0.46%). 70.1% of UIAs were detected incidentally. Mean aneurysm diameter was 4.1mm.Logistic regression identified age < 50, autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease (ADPKD), hypertension and diameter > 7mm as significant risk factors for growth/rupture. Additionally, previous smoking compared to current smoking was a protective factor against growth or rupture, but no significant difference was seen when comparing current- with non-smokers. Small aneurysm subgroup analysis identified diameter > 5mm, age < 50, ADPKD, and ongoing smoking as risk factors. No significant difference was observed in risk between those with and without previous SAH.

Conclusions: This study underlines the need for imaging surveillance of even small UIAs. Smoking is a modifiable risk factor for growth/rupture of pre-existing aneurysms, while ADPKD is a particularly strong risk factor.