Self-efficacy in predicting smoking cessation: A prospective study in Italy.

Introduction: Predicting the success of smoking cessation might be crucial to guide towards the treatment of smoking dependence in a clinical setting. We analyzed the potential determinants of successful smoking cessation with a specific focus on self-efficacy in predicting quitting smoking.

Methods: All consecutive smokers (n=478; 224 men and 254 women) attending the Careggi University Hospital Smoking Cessation Service in Florence (Italy) in 2018-2019 provided information on self-efficacy in predicting smoking cessation, using a 1-10 rating scale during their first visit. Patients were followed up for success in quitting smoking at 3, 6 and 12 months, validated through CO exhaled measurement. To evaluate the association between self-efficacy and the probability of success, we estimated multivariable relative risks (RRs) and corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs) through log-binomial models for longitudinal data.

Results: Overall, 47.9% of smokers succeeded in their attempt to quit at 3 months, 40.2% at 6 months, and 33.9% at 12 months. Compared to low self-efficacy (rating scale 1-5), the RR of success in quitting smoking was 1.40 (95% CI: 1.06-1.85) for intermediate self-efficacy (scale 6-7) and 1.64 (95% CI: 1.28-2.12) for high self-efficacy (scale 8-10).

Conclusions: Self-efficacy is an independent determinant of smoking cessation. We recommend to systematically collect self-efficacy, together with other relevant variables, to predict successful smoking cessation. Moreover, strategies to develop and maintain high levels of self-efficacy are essential to increase quit success and improve treatment.