Psychometric curves reveal changes in bias, lapse rate, and guess rate in an online vigilance task.

When human monitors are required to detect infrequent signals among noise, they typically exhibit a decline in correct detections over time. Researchers have attributed this vigilance decrement to three alternative mechanisms: shifts in response bias, losses of sensitivity, and attentional lapses. The current study examined the extent to which changes in these mechanisms contributed to the vigilance decrement in an online monitoring task. Participants in two experiments (N = 102, N = 192) completed an online signal detection task, judging whether the separation between two probes each trial exceeded a criterion value. Separation was varied across trials and data were fit with logistic psychometric curves using Bayesian hierarchical parameter estimation. Parameters representing sensitivity, response bias, attentional lapse rate, and guess rate were compared across the first and last 4 minutes of the vigil. Data gave decisive evidence of conservative bias shifts, an increased attentional lapse rate, and a decreased positive guess rate over time on task, but no strong evidence for or against an effect of sensitivity. Sensitivity decrements appear less robust than criterion shifts or attention lapses as causes of the vigilance loss.