Association of ABO blood groups with venous thrombosis recurrence in middle-aged patients: insights from a weighted Cox analysis dedicated to ambispective design.

Background: In studies of time-to-events, it is common to collect information about events that occurred before the inclusion in a prospective cohort. When the studied risk factors are independent of time, including both pre- and post-inclusion events in the analyses, generally referred to as relying on an ambispective design, increases the statistical power but may lead to a selection bias. In the field of venous thromboembolism (VT), ABO blood groups have been the subject of extensive research due to their substantial effect on VT risk. However, few studies have investigated their effect on the risk of VT recurrence. Motivated by the study of the association of genetically determined ABO blood groups with VT recurrence, we propose a methodology to include pre-inclusion events in the analysis of ambispective studies while avoiding the selection bias due to mortality.

Methods: This work relies on two independent cohorts of VT patients, the French MARTHA study built on an ambispective design and the Dutch MEGA study built on a standard prospective design. For the analysis of the MARTHA study, a weighted Cox model was developed where weights were defined by the inverse of the survival probability at the time of data collection about the events. Thanks to the collection of information on the vital status of patients, we could estimate the survival probabilities using a delayed-entry Cox model on the death risk. Finally, results obtained in both studies were then meta-analysed.

Results: In the combined sample totalling 2,752 patients including 993 recurrences, the A1 blood group has an increased risk (Hazard Ratio (HR) of 1.18, p = 4.2 × 10) compared with the O1 group, homogeneously in MARTHA and in MEGA. The same trend (HR = 1.19, p = 0.06) was observed for the less frequent A2 group.

Conclusion: The proposed methodology increases the power of studies relying on an ambispective design which is frequent in epidemiologic studies about recurrent events. This approach allowed to clarify the association of ABO blood groups with the risk of VT recurrence. Besides, this methodology has an immediate field of application in the context of genome wide association studies.