Cross-sectional survey in Central African Republic finds mortality 4-times higher than UN statistics: how can we not know the Central African Republic is in such an acute humanitarian crisis?

Background: CAR is one of the poorest countries in the world. While UN statistics suggest that there is no health emergency in the country, two recently published mortality surveys contradict this. Moreover, recent accusations of massive scale human rights abuses by mercenaries suggested the need for a nationwide mortality survey.

Methods: Two stage cluster surveys were conducted in two different strata: one in the roughly half of the country within the Government's control, and one in the areas mostly outside of the Government's control. We randomly selected 40 clusters of 10 households in each stratum. The survey included questions on vital events with open-ended questions about health and household challenges at the beginning and end of each interview.

Results: 70 of 80 selected clusters were successfully visited. We interviewed 699 households, containing 5070 people. 11 households (1.6%) refused to be interviewed and approximately 18.3% of households were absent at the time of visitation, mainly in the safer Government controlled areas. Interviewed households had a birth rate of 42.6 /1000 / year (95%CI 35.4-59.7) and a crude mortality rate (CMR) of 1.57 /10,000/day (95%CI: 1.36-1.78). The birth rate was lower and the death rate markedly higher in the strata outside of Government control. Families described malaria or fever, and diarrhea as the primary reported causes of death with violence accounting for 6% of all deaths.

Conclusions: CAR is experiencing a severe health emergency, with the highest measured nationwide mortality in the world to our knowledge. UN published death rate estimates appear to be less than one fourth of reality. There is a desperate need for food aid in the form of general distributions in CAR, along with the accompanying work programs, seed and tool distributions needed to restart local economies. This is of particular importance in rural areas outside of the Government control. While some humanitarian actors are doing their best to respond, the crisis level mortality rate suggests that the needs in CAR are being largely unmet.