Trend relationship between mountain normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and aerosol optical depth (AOD) across two decades: implication for water quality within the Lesotho Highlands, Drakensberg, South Africa.

There are growing concerns on contribution of vegetation dynamics to atmospheric turbidity and quality of regional water towers. The study sought to determine the trends in the MODIS/TERRA-derived normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and aerosol optical depth (AOD) for Lesotho Highland over 2000-2020. The predictive relationship between the two variables was also examined using regression analysis. Irrespective of yearly AOD patterns, the AOD showed biphasic patterns peaking between mid-winter to early spring (July-October) (highest) and autumn (Feb-April) (next highest), and lowest in the summer (Nov-January). The monthly NDVI was largest in January-March (summer-early fall) with smaller values in winter and spring. This seasonality can be related to the peak of anthropogenic biomass combustion during the winter and strong winds during the spring and early summer. The AOD relationship with NDVI showed quadratic patterns peaking and plunging with changes in season. About 30-80% (R = 0.3-0.8%) changes in annual AOD from 2000 to 2020 were explainable by the dynamics of NDVI indicating that increased NDVI contributes to about a 50% decrease in AOD in the Lesotho Highlands. However, an outlier trend was observed in 2007 (R = 13%). Incidences of high AOD in months of high NDVI may be indicative of traveling aerosols, i.e., aerosols from non-local sources/activity. On the other hand, high AOD in months of low NDVI implicates local aerosol sources. Trend relationship studies on vegetation loss and AOD in mountain areas of other regions could improve knowledge of contaminant dynamics and risk implications for downstream populations.