The effects of exogenous estrogen in women with SAR-CoV-2 infection: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

Study Question: Does exogenous estrogen use affect COVID-19-related mortality in women?

Summary Answer: Menopausal hormone therapy (MHT) was associated with a lower likelihood of all-cause fatality related to COVID-19 in postmenopausal women (odds ratio (OR) 0.28, 95% CI 0.18, 0.44; 4 studies, 21 517 women) but the combined oral contraceptive pill in premenopausal women did not have a significant effect (OR 1.00, 95% CI 0.42-2.41; 2 studies, 5099 women).

What Is Known Already: Men are much more likely to die from COVID-19 than women.

Study Design, Size, Duration: In this systematic meta-analysis, a literature search was conducted using the following search terms related toCOVID-19 and estrogen, sex hormones, hormonal replacement, menopause, or contraception. The PubMed, Scopus, Cochrane Library, and EMBASE databases were searched to identify relevant studies published between December 2019 and December 2021. We also searched MedRxiv as a preprint database and reviewed the reference lists of all included studies and clinical trial registries for ongoing clinical studies until December 2021.

Participants/materials, Setting, Methods: All comparative studies that compared the rates mortality and morbidity (hospitalization, intensive care unit (ICU) admission, and ventilation support) due to COVID-19 in women using exogenous estrogen to a control group of women (nonusers) were included. A review of the studies for inclusion, extraction of data, and assessment of the risk of bias was performed independently by two reviewers. The ROBINS-I tool and the RoB 2 tool were used for bias assessment of the included studies. Pooled odds ratios (ORs) with 95% CIs were calculated using Review Manager V5.4.1. The I2 statistic was used to quantify heterogeneity. The quality of the evidence was assessed using GRADE criteria.

Main Results And The Role Of Chance: After searching the databases, we identified a total of 5310 studies. After removing duplicate records, ineligible studies, and ongoing studies, a total of four cohort studies and one randomized controlled trial comprising 177 809 participants were included in this review. There was a moderate certainty of evidence that MHT was associated with a lower likelihood of all-cause fatality related to COVID-19 (OR 0.28, 95% CI 0.18, 0.44; I2 = 0%; 4 studies, 21 517 women). The review indicated a low certainty of evidence for other outcomes. The mortality rate of premenopausal women in the combined oral contraceptive pill group did not differ significantly from the control group (OR 1.00, 95% CI 0.42-2.41; 2 studies, 5099 women). MHT marginally increased the rate of hospitalization and ICU admission (OR 1.37, 95% CI 1.18-1.61; 3 studies, 151 485 women), but there was no significant difference in the need for respiratory support between MHT users and nonusers (OR 0.91, 95% CI 0.52-1.59; 3 studies, 151 485 women). Overall, the tendency and magnitude of the effects of MHT in postmenopausal women with COVID-19 were consistent across the included studies.

Limitations, Reasons For Caution: The certainty of the evidence for other outcomes of this review may be limited, as all included studies were cohort studies. In addition, the dosages and durations of exogenous estrogen used by postmenopausal women varied from study to study, and combined progestogen administration may have had some effect on the outcomes.

Wider Implications Of The Findings: The findings of this study can aid in counseling postmenopausal women taking MHT when they are diagnosed with COVID, as they have a lower chance of death than those not taking MHT.

Study Funding/competing Interest(s): Khon Kaen University provided financial support for this review and had no involvement at any stage of the study. The authors have no conflicts of interest to declare.

Registration Number: PROSPERO, CRD42021271882.