Prediction of morning fatigue severity in outpatients receiving chemotherapy: less may still be more.

Introduction: Fatigue is the most common and debilitating symptom experienced by cancer patients undergoing chemotherapy (CTX). Prediction of symptom severity can assist clinicians to identify high-risk patients and provide education to decrease symptom severity. The purpose of this study was to predict the severity of morning fatigue in the week following the administration of CTX.

Methods: Outpatients (n = 1217) completed questionnaires 1 week prior to and 1 week following administration of CTX. Morning fatigue was measured using the Lee Fatigue Scale (LFS). Separate prediction models for morning fatigue severity were created using 157 demographic, clinical, symptom, and psychosocial adjustment characteristics and either morning fatigue scores or individual fatigue item scores. Prediction models were created using two regression and five machine learning approaches.

Results: Elastic net models provided the best fit across all models. For the EN model using individual LFS item scores, two of the 13 individual LFS items (i.e., "worn out," "exhausted") were the strongest predictors.

Conclusions: This study is the first to use machine learning techniques to accurately predict the severity of morning fatigue from prior to through the week following the administration of CTX using total and individual item scores from the Lee Fatigue Scale (LFS). Our findings suggest that the language used to assess clinical fatigue in oncology patients is important and that two simple questions may be used to predict morning fatigue severity.