Recurrence risk in symptomatic intracranial stenosis treated medically in the real world.

Background: The risk of early recurrence in medically treated patients with intracranial atherosclerotic stenosis (ICAS) may differ in clinical trials versus real-world settings. Delayed enrollment may contribute to lower event rates in ICAS trials. We aim to determine the 30-day recurrence risk in a real-world setting of symptomatic ICAS.

Methods: We used a comprehensive stroke center stroke registry to identify hospitalized patients with acute ischemic stroke or TIA due to symptomatic 50-99% ICAS. The outcome was recurrent stroke within 30 days. We used adjusted Cox regression models to identify factors associated with increased recurrence risk. We also performed a comparison of 30-day recurrent stroke rates in real world cohorts and clinical trials.

Results: Among 131 hospitalizations with symptomatic 50-99% ICAS over 3 years, 80 hospitalizations of 74 patients (mean age 71.6 years, 55.41% men) met the inclusion criteria. Over 30 days, 20.6 % had recurrent stroke; 61.5% (8/13) occurred within first 7 days. The risk was higher in patients not receiving dual antiplatelet therapy (HR 3.92 95% CI 1.30-11.84, p = 0.015) and hypoperfusion mismatch volume >3.5 mL at a T max>6 s threshold (HR 6.55 95% CI 1.60-26.88, p < 0.001). The recurrence risk was similar to another real world ICAD cohort (20.2%), and higher than that seen in clinical trials (2.2%-5.7%), even in those treated with maximal medical treatment or meeting inclusion criteria for trials.

Conclusions: In patients with symptomatic ICAS, the real-world recurrence of ischemic events is higher than that seen in clinical trials, even in subgroups receiving the same pharmacological treatment strategies.