Epidemiological Trends of Kidney Cancer Along with Attributable Risk Factors in China from 1990 to 2019 and Its Projections Until 2030: An Analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019.

Background: Understanding the past and future burden of kidney cancer in China over years provides essential references for optimizing the prevention and management strategies.

Methods: The data on incidence, mortality, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) and age-standardized rates of kidney cancer in China, 1990-2019, were collected from the database of Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. The estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) was calculated to depict the trends of kidney cancer burden, and Bayesian age-period-cohort analysis was used to predict the incidence and mortality in the next decade.

Results: Over the past 30 years, the number of new kidney cancer cases sharply increased from 11.07 thousand to 59.83 thousand, and the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) tripled from 1.16/100,000 to 3.21/100,000. The mortality and DALYs also presented an increasing pattern. Smoking and high body mass index were mainly risk factors for kidney cancer. We predicted that by 2030, the incident cases and deaths of kidney cancer would increase to 126.8 thousand and 41.8 thousand, respectively.

Conclusion: In the past 30 years, the kidney cancer burden gradually increased in China, and it will continue to rise in the next decade, which reveals more targeted intervention measures are necessary.