Model of the Origin of a Ciguatoxic Grouper ().

Published data were used to model the transfer of ciguatoxins (CTX) across three trophic levels of a marine food chain on the Great Barrier Reef (GBR), Australia, to produce a mildly toxic common coral trout (), one of the most targeted food fishes on the GBR. Our model generated a 1.6 kg grouper with a flesh concentration of 0.1 µg/kg of Pacific-ciguatoxin-1 (P-CTX-1 = CTX1B) from 1.1 to 4.3 µg of P-CTX-1 equivalents (eq.) entering the food chain from 0.7 to 2.7 million benthic dinoflagellates ( sp.) producing 1.6 pg/cell of the P-CTX-1 precursor, P-CTX-4B (CTX4B). We simulated the food chain transfer of ciguatoxins via surgeonfishes by modelling feeding on turf algae. A feeding on ≥1000 /cm of turf algae accumulates sufficient toxin in <2 days that when preyed on, produces a 1.6 kg common coral trout with a flesh concentration of 0.1 µg/kg P-CTX-1. Our model shows that even transient blooms of highly ciguatoxic can generate ciguateric fishes. In contrast, sparse cell densities of ≤10 /cm are unlikely to pose a significant risk, at least in areas where the P-CTX-1 family of ciguatoxins predominate. The ciguatera risk from intermediate densities (~100 cells/cm) is more difficult to assess, as it requires feeding times for surgeonfish (~4-14 days) that overlap with turnover rates of turf algae that are grazed by herbivorous fishes, at least in regions such as the GBR, where stocks of herbivorous fishes are not impacted by fishing. We use our model to explore how the duration of ciguatoxic blooms, the type of ciguatoxins they produce, and fish feeding behaviours can produce differences in relative toxicities between trophic levels. Our simple model indicates thresholds for the design of risk and mitigation strategies for ciguatera and the variables that can be manipulated to explore alternate scenarios for the accumulation and transfer of P-CTX-1 analogues through marine food chains and, potentially, for other ciguatoxins in other regions, as more data become available.