Trajectories of alcohol consumption in U.S. military veterans: Results from a 10-year population-based longitudinal study.

Background: Alcohol use disorder is a public health problem, especially among US veterans. This study examined the nature and predictors of 10-year trajectories of alcohol consumption in US veterans.

Methods: Data were analyzed from the 2011-2021 National Health and Resilience in Veterans Study, a nationally representative, longitudinal study of 2309 US veterans.

Results: Latent growth mixture modeling analyses revealed four trajectories of alcohol consumption (Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test-Consumption [AUDIT-C]) over a 10-year period: excessive (4.1%; mean [standard deviation] AUDIT-C baseline=8.6 [2.0], slope= -0.33 [0.07]); at-risk (22.1%; baseline=4.1 [1.6], slope=0.02 [0.07]); rare (71.7%; baseline=1.2 [1.3], slope= -0.01 [0.03]); and recovering alcohol consumption (2.1%; baseline=8.4 [1.9], slope= -0.70 [0.14]). The strongest predictors of excessive vs. rare alcohol consumption group were younger age (relative variance explained [RVE]=27.8%), and lower agreeableness (RVE=27.0%); at-risk vs. rare alcohol consumption group were fewer medical comorbidities (RVE=82.3%); recovering vs. rare alcohol consumption group were greater dysphoric arousal symptoms (RVE=46.1%) and current mental health treatment (RVE=26.5%); excessive vs. at-risk alcohol consumption group were younger age (RVE=25.9%), greater dysphoric arousal symptoms of posttraumatic stress disorder (RVE=22.0%), and lower conscientiousness (RVE=19.1%); and excessive vs. recovering alcohol consumption group were current mental health treatment (RVE=61.1%) and secure attachment style (RVE=12.4%).

Conclusions: Over the past decade, more than 1 in 4 US veterans consumed alcohol at the at-risk-to-excessive level. Veterans who are younger, score lower on agreeableness and conscientiousness, endorse greater dysphoric arousal symptoms, and currently not engaged in mental health treatment may require close monitoring and prevention efforts to mitigate the risk of a chronic course of at-risk-to-excessive alcohol consumption.