Consumer Demand for Milk and the Informal Dairy Sector Amidst COVID-19 in Nairobi, Kenya.

Background: The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has had large negative effects on countries' economies and individual well-being throughout the world, particularly in low- and middle-income countries. Pandemic-related changes in behavior and government restrictions in Kenya may have negatively affected food supply chains and household food access; however, the empirical evidence is currently limited.

Objectives: The study explored changes in informal milk markets, dairy consumption, and food insecurity among low-income households in urban and periurban Nairobi, Kenya, following the start of the COVID-19 pandemic in the country.

Methods: Baseline data on milk sales and consumption were collected in late 2019 from dairy vendors operating in the informal sector and their dairy customers. We conducted 2 longitudinal telephone surveys with the same study participants in July and September-October 2020, respectively.

Results: At the first follow-up, the volume of milk sold by informal vendors had dropped by 30% compared with their baseline level, and the volume of milk from informal markets consumed by households decreased by 23%. By the second follow-up, the volume of milk sold and consumed had recovered somewhat but remained lower than the volume observed 1 y prior in the same season. Large reductions in the consumption of other animal-sourced products were also observed. The rate of food insecurity increased by 16 and 11 percentage points in the first and second follow-up periods, respectively, compared with baseline.

Conclusions: The evidence, therefore, suggests that the timing of the pandemic and the related restrictions were associated with a decrease in the supply and consumption of milk from informal markets in Nairobi and a decrease in the food security of periurban consumers.