Projections of costs and quality adjusted life years lost due to dementia from 2020 to 2050: A population-based microsimulation study.

Introduction: Efficient healthcare planning requires reliable projections of the future increase in costs and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) lost due to dementia.

Methods: We used the microsimulation model MISCAN-Dementia to simulate life histories and dementia occurrence using population-based Rotterdam Study data and nationwide birth cohort demographics. We estimated costs and QALYs lost in the Netherlands from 2020 to 2050, incorporating literature estimates of cost and utility for patients and caregivers by dementia severity and care setting.

Results: Societal costs and QALYs lost due to dementia are estimated to double between 2020 and 2050. Costs are incurred predominantly through institutional (34%), formal home (31%), and informal home care (20%). Lost QALYs are mostly due to shortened life expectancy (67%) and, to a lesser extent, quality of life with severe dementia (14%).

Discussion: To limit healthcare costs and quality of life losses due to dementia, interventions are needed that slow symptom progression and reduce care dependency.