AI Article Synopsis
- Cardiovascular disease (CVD) raises the risk of severe COVID-19, but the impact of predicted cardiovascular risk in those without diagnosed CVD is less understood.
- A study analyzed data from over 6 million adults in England, categorizing them by their cardiovascular risk to assess severe COVID-19 outcomes (like death and ICU admissions).
- Findings revealed that individuals with a higher QRISK3 score (risk assessment score) had significantly worse outcomes during COVID-19, indicating that those with increased cardiovascular risk, even without diagnosed CVD, face serious health threats when infected.
Article Abstract
Background: While cardiovascular disease (CVD) is a risk factor for severe COVID-19, the association between predicted cardiovascular risk and severe COVID-19 among people without diagnosed CVD is unclear.
Methods: We carried out historical, population-based cohort studies among adults aged 40-84 years in England using linked data from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink. Individuals were categorized into: existing CVD, raised cardiovascular risk (defined using QRISK3 score ≥10%) and low risk (QRISK3 score <10%) at 12/03/2020. We described incidence and severe outcomes of COVID-19 (deaths, intensive care unit [ICU] admissions, hospitalisations, major adverse cardiovascular events [MACE]) for each group. Among those with a COVID-19 record to 31/12/2020, we re-classified cardiovascular risk at infection and assessed the risk of severe outcomes using multivariable Cox regression with complete case analysis. We repeated analyses using hypertension to define raised cardiovascular risk.
Findings: Among 6,059,055 individuals, 741,913 (12.2%) had established CVD, 1,929,627 (31.8%) had a QRISK3 score ≥10% and 3,387,515 (55.9%) had a QRISK3 score <10%. Marked gradients were seen in the incidence of all severe COVID-19 outcomes by cardiovascular risk profile. Among those with COVID-19 (N = 146,760), there was a strong association between raised QRISK3 score and death: adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 8.77 (7.62-10.10), N = 97,725, which remained present, though attenuated in age-stratified results. Risks of other outcomes were also higher among those with raised QRISK3 score: aHR 3.66 (3.18-4.21) for ICU admissions, 3.38 (3.22-3.56) for hospitalisations, 5.43 (4.44-6.64) for MACE. When raised cardiovascular risk was redefined by hypertension status, only the association with MACE remained: aHR 1.49 (1.20-1.85), N = 57,264.
Interpretation: Individuals without pre-existing CVD but with raised cardiovascular risk (by QRISK3 score) were more likely to experience severe COVID-19 outcomes and should be prioritised for prevention and treatment. Addressing cardiovascular risk factors could improve COVID-19 outcomes.
Funding: BMA Foundation for Medical Research/Rosetrees Trust, Wellcome, BHF.
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|---|---|
| http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9991014 | PMC |
| http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.lanepe.2023.100604 | DOI Listing |
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