Predictors of COVID-19 severity and outcomes in Indian patients with rheumatic diseases: a prospective cohort study.

Objective: There is dearth of data regarding the outcomes of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) among rheumatic and musculoskeletal disease (RMD) patients from Southeast Asia. We report the clinicodemographic profile and identify predictors of COVID-19 outcomes in a large cohort of Indian RMD patients.

Methods: This prospective cohort study, carried out at the Postgraduate Institute of Medical Education and Research, Chandigarh (a tertiary care centre in India), included RMD patients affected with COVID-19 between April 2020 and October 2021. Demographic and clinical and laboratory details of COVID-19 and underlying RMD were noted. Predictors of mortality, hospitalization and severe COVID-19 were identified using stepwise multivariable logistic regression.

Results: A total of 64 severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2-infected RMD patients [age 41.5 (19-85) years; 46 (72%) females] were included. Eighteen (28%) patients had severe COVID-19. Twenty-three (36%) required respiratory support [11 (17%) required mechanical ventilation]. Thirty-six (56%) patients required hospitalization [median duration of stay 10 (1-42) days]; 17 (27%) required intensive care unit admission. Presence of co-morbidities [odds ratio (OR) = 4.5 (95% CI: 1.4, 14.7)] was found to be an independent predictor of COVID-19 severity. Co-morbidities [OR = 10.7 (95% CI: 2.5, 45.4)] and underlying lupus [OR = 7.0 (95% CI: 1.2, 40.8)] were independently associated with COVID-19 hospitalization. Ongoing rheumatic disease activity [OR = 6.8 (95% CI: 1.3, 35.4)] and underlying diagnosis of lupus [OR = 7.1 (95% CI: 1.2, 42.4)] and SSc [OR = 9.5 (95% CI: 1.5, 61.8)] were found to be strong independent predictors of mortality. Age, sex, underlying RMD-associated interstitial lung disease and choice of immunosuppressive therapy were not associated with COVID-19 severity or adverse outcomes.

Conclusion: The presence of co-morbidities was independently associated with COVID-19 severity and hospitalization. Ongoing rheumatic disease activity and the presence of lupus or SSc independently predicted mortality. Age, sex, type of immunosuppressive therapy and presence of RMD-associated interstitial lung disease did not affect COVID-19 severity or outcomes in Indian RMD patients.