[Value of serum procalcitonin and acute physiology and chronic health evaluation II score on predicting the prognosis of sepsis in elderly patients].

Objective: To explore the value of serum procalcitonin (PCT) and acute physiology and chronic health evaluation II (APACHE II) score on predicting prognosis of elderly patients with sepsis.

Methods: A retrospective cohort study, patients with sepsis who admitted to the department of emergency and the department of geriatric medicine of Peking University Third Hospital from March 2020 to June 2021 were enrolled. Patients' demographics, routine laboratory examinations, APACHE II score that within 24 hours of admission were obtained from their electronic medical records. The prognosis during the hospitalization and one year after discharge were collected, retrospectively. Univariate and multivariate analysis of prognostic factors were performed. And Kaplan-Meier survival curves were used to examine overall survival.

Results: A total of 116 elderly patients met inclusion criteria, 55 were alive and 61 were died. On univariate analysis, clinical variables such as lactic acid [Lac, hazard ratio (HR) = 1.16, 95% confidence interval (95%CI) was 1.07-1.26, P < 0.001], PCT (HR = 1.02, 95%CI was 1.01-1.04, P < 0.001), alanine aminotransferase (ALT, HR = 1.00,95%CI was 1.00-1.00, P = 0.143), aspartate aminotransferase (AST, HR = 1.00, 95%CI was 1.00-1.01, P = 0.014), lactate dehydrogenase (LDH, HR = 1.00, 95%CI was 1.00-1.00, P < 0.001), hydroxybutyrate dehydrogenase (HBDH, HR = 1.00, 95%CI was 1.00-1.00, P = 0.001), creatine kinase (CK, HR = 1.00, 95%CI was 1.00-1.00, P = 0.002), MB isoenzyme of creatine kinase (CK-MB, HR = 1.01, 95%CI was 1.01-1.02, P < 0.001), Na (HR = 1.02, 95%CI was 0.99-1.05, P = 0.183), blood urea nitrogen (BUN, HR = 1.02, 95%CI was 0.99-1.05, P = 0.139), fibrinogen (FIB, HR = 0.85, 95%CI was 0.71-1.02, P = 0.078), neutrophil ratio (NEU%, HR = 0.99, 95%CI was 0.97-1.00, P = 0.114), platelet count (PLT, HR = 1.00, 95%CI was 0.99-1.00, P = 0.108) and total bile acid (TBA, HR = 1.01, 95%CI was 1.00-1.02, P = 0.096) shown to be associated with poor prognosis. On multivariable analysis, level of PCT was an important factor influencing the outcome of sepsis (HR = 1.03, 95%CI was 1.01-1.05, P = 0.002). Kaplan-Meier survival curve showed that there was no significant difference with respect to the overall survival between the two groups, with patients of PCT ≤ 0.25 μg/L and PCT > 0.25 μg/L (P = 0.220). It also showed that the overall survival rate in patients with high APACHE II score (> 27 points) was significantly lower than that in patients with low APACHE II score (≤ 27 points, P = 0.015).

Conclusions: Serum PCT level is valuable prognostic factors of elderly patients with sepsis, and higher APACHE II score (> 27 points) indicates a poor prognosis.