Age, Period, and Cohort Analysis of Smoking Intensity Among Current Smokers in Malaysia, 1996-2015.

Introduction: Tobacco use is one of the major preventable risk factors for premature death and disability worldwide. Understanding the trend of tobacco use over time is important for informed policy making.

Aims And Methods: The present study aimed to examine the changes in mean daily cigarette consumption among random samples of the Malaysian current smoker population over 20 years using an age-period-cohort (APC) approach. We conducted APC analysis using a multilevel hierarchical age-period-cohort model and data from four nationally representative, repeated cross-sectional surveys (National Health and Morbidity Survey) conducted in 1996, 2006, 2011, and 2015 among individuals aged 18 to 80 years. Analyses were also stratified by gender and ethnicity.

Results: Overall, mean daily cigarette consumption (smoking intensity) among current smokers increased with age until 60, after which a drop was observed. There were increases in daily cigarette consumption across birth cohorts. Age and cohort trends did not vary by gender but by ethnicity. The decreasing cigarette consumption after age 60 among the current smoker population was consistent with those observed among the Chinese and Indians, a trend that was not observed in Malays and other aborigines. In contrast, the increasing cohort trend was consistent with those observed among the Malays and other bumiputras.

Conclusions: The present study highlighted important ethnic-specific trends for mean daily cigarette consumption among the current smoker population in Malaysia. These findings are essential in guiding the formulation of interventional strategies or implementation of national tobacco control policies and help achieve the Ministry of Health Malaysia's 2025 and 2045 targets for smoking prevalence.

Implications: This is the first APC study on smoking intensity among current smokers in a multiracial, middle-income nation. Very few studies had performed gender- and ethnic-stratified APC analyses. The ethnic-stratified APC analyses provide useful insights into the overall age and cohort trends observed among the current smoker population in Malaysia. Therefore, the present study could add evidence to the existing literature on the APC trends of smoking intensity. The APC trends are also important in guiding the government to develop, implement, and evaluate antismoking strategies.