What's stopping the waste-treatment industry from adopting emerging circular technologies? An agent-based model revealing drivers and barriers.

Many new circular economy technologies are gaining momentum, yet research on the complexity of adoption decisions driven by uncertainties, both at technology and ecosystem level, is lacking. In the present study, an agent-based model was developed to study factors that influence the adoption of emerging circular technologies. The case of the waste treatment industry was chosen, specifically its (non-) adoption of the so-called "Volatile Fatty Acid Platform", a circular economy technology that facilitates both the valorization of organic waste into high-end products as well as their sale on global markets. Model results show adoption rates under 60% due to effects of subsidies, market growth, technological uncertainty and social pressure. Furthermore, the conditions were revealed under which certain parameters have the most effect. An agent-based model enabled use of a systemic approach to reveal the mechanisms of circular emerging technology innovation that are most relevant for researchers and waste treatment stakeholders.