Prospective evaluation of an emergency department protocol to prevent hospitalization in mild acute pancreatitis: Outcomes and predictors of discharge.

Background: While acute pancreatitis (AP) contributes significantly to hospitalizations and costs, most cases are mild with minimal complications. In 2016, we piloted an observation pathway in the emergency department (ED) for mild AP and showed reduced admissions and length of stay (LOS) without increased readmissions or mortality. After 5 years of implementation, we evaluated outcomes of the ED pathway and identified predictors of successful discharge.

Methods: We reviewed a prospectively enrolled cohort of patients with mild AP presenting to a tertiary care center ED between 10/2016 and 9/2021, evaluating LOS, charges, imaging, and 30-day readmission, and assessed predictors of successful ED discharge. Patients were divided into two main groups: successfully discharged via the ED pathway ("ED cohort") and admitted to the hospital ("admission cohort"), with subgroups to compare outcomes, and multivariate analysis to determine predictors of discharge.

Results: Of 619 AP patients, 419 had mild AP (109 ED cohort, 310 admission cohort). The ED cohort was younger (age 49.3 vs 56.3,p < 0.001), had lower Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) (1.30 vs 2.43, p < 0.001), shorter LOS (12.3 h vs 116 h, p < 0.001), lower charges (mean $6768 vs $19886, p < 0.001) and less imaging, without differences in 30-day readmissions. Increasing age (OR: 0.97; p < 0.001), increasing CCI (OR: 0.75; p < 0.001) and biliary AP (OR: 0.10; p < 0.001) were associated with decreased ED discharge, while idiopathic AP had increased ED discharge (OR: 7.8; p < 0.001).

Conclusions: After appropriate triage, patients with mild AP (age <50, CCI <2, idiopathic AP) can safely discharge from the ED with improved outcomes and cost savings.