Predictors of the rate of cognitive decline in older adults using machine learning.

Background: The longitudinal rates of cognitive decline among aging populations are heterogeneous. Few studies have investigated the possibility of implementing prognostic models to predict cognitive changes with the combination of categorical and continuous data from multiple domains.

Objective: Implement a multivariate robust model to predict longitudinal cognitive changes over 12 years among older adults and to identify the most significant predictors of cognitive changes using machine learning techniques.

Method: In total, data of 2733 participants aged 50-85 years from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing are included. Two categories of cognitive changes were determined including minor cognitive decliners (2361 participants, 86.4%) and major cognitive decliners (372 participants, 13.6%) over 12 years from wave 2 (2004-2005) to wave 8 (2016-2017). Machine learning methods were used to implement the predictive models and to identify the predictors of cognitive decline using 43 baseline features from seven domains including sociodemographic, social engagement, health, physical functioning, psychological, health-related behaviors, and baseline cognitive tests.

Results: The model predicted future major cognitive decliners from those with the minor cognitive decline with a relatively high performance. The overall AUC, sensitivity, and specificity of prediction were 72.84%, 78.23%, and 67.41%, respectively. Furthermore, the top 7 ranked features with an important role in predicting major vs minor cognitive decliners included age, employment status, socioeconomic status, self-rated memory changes, immediate word recall, the feeling of loneliness, and vigorous physical activity. In contrast, the five least important baseline features consisted of smoking, instrumental activities of daily living, eye disease, life satisfaction, and cardiovascular disease.

Conclusion: The present study indicated the possibility of identifying individuals at high risk of future major cognitive decline as well as potential risk/protective factors of cognitive decline among older adults. The findings could assist in improving the effective interventions to delay cognitive decline among aging populations.