Socioepidemiological macro-determinants associated with the cumulative incidence of bacterial meningitis: A focus on the African Meningitis Belt.

Background: Bacterial meningitis (BM) is a public health challenge as it is associated with high lethality and neurological sequelae. Worldwide, most cases are registered in the African Meningitis Belt (AMB). The role of particular socioepidemiological features is essential for understanding disease dynamics and optimizing policy-making.

Objective: To identify socioepidemiological macro-determinants that contribute to explaining the differences in BM incidence between AMB and the rest of Africa.

Methods: Country-level ecologic study based on the cumulative incidence estimates of the Global Burden of Disease study and reports of the MenAfriNet Consortium. Data about relevant socioepidemiological features were extracted from international sources. Multivariate regression models were implemented to define variables associated with the classification of African countries within the AMB and the incidence of BM worldwide.

Results: Cumulative incidences at the AMB sub-regions were 111.93 (west), 87.23 (central), 65.10 (east), and 42.47 (north) per 100,000 population. A pattern of common origin with continuous exposition and seasonality of cases was observed. Socio-epidemiological determinants contributing to differentiating the AMB from the rest of Africa were household occupancy (OR 3.17 CI 95% 1.09-9.22, = 0.034) and malaria incidence (OR 1.01 CI 95% 1.00-1.02, = 0.016). BM cumulative incidence worldwide was additionally associated with temperature and gross national income per capita.

Conclusion: Socioeconomic and climate conditions are macro-determinants associated with BM cumulative incidence. Multilevel designs are required to confirm these findings.